Why it matters
Why fair AI support matters for Wales
Small businesses are most of the Welsh economy. Helping them put AI to work could benefit their owners, their staff and Wales as a whole.
For the Welsh economy
More output for Wales
If Welsh AI adoption catches up with the UK rate by 2030, Wales could gain about £1.1bn of extra output over 2026 to 2035. The gain rises to about £326m a year by 2035, and it continues after that.
EvidenceCentral estimate, measured as gross value added in 2024 prices. It is indicative, not a forecast, and it does not show that any particular programme would close the gap.
A large share for small companies
In the central case for 2035, small and medium-sized companies would receive about 37% of the whole gain from AI. Microbusinesses alone would receive about 15.5%.
EvidenceCentral case for 2035, from the report’s economic model.
Most businesses, and most people employed by businesses
Small and medium-sized businesses are 99.3% of businesses in Wales. They employ 714,900 people, 62.3% of everyone who works in Welsh businesses. Microbusinesses alone are 94.6% of businesses.
EvidenceBusinesses active in Wales in 2025.
Catching up with the rest of the UK
In 2024, 24.8% of Welsh companies with ten or more employees that used digital production technologies were using AI. That was the lowest share of the four UK nations, against 34.9% in England. The gap was widest among companies that innovate, which suggests that awareness on its own may not close it.
EvidenceUK Innovation Survey 2025, figures for 2024. Use of AI has risen quickly since then, but the gap with England is the more lasting finding.
A fairer share of UK funding
Wales has 3.4% of UK private sector businesses, but it won 2.0% of the money in Innovate UK competitions dedicated to AI. Helping more Welsh companies to bid could raise that share, and it matters more now that the UK Government has announced £100m to expand its BridgeAI programme.
EvidenceInnovate UK records to October 2026.
A contribution to Welsh productivity
The Welsh Government has set a goal of halving the productivity gap with the UK within ten years. The report’s estimate suggests that AI adoption could make a measurable contribution to Welsh output.
EvidenceThe productivity goal does not itself mention AI.
For small businesses
Help with everyday tasks
AI can take on part of the work in many jobs. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects most occupations that are exposed to AI to be helped by it rather than replaced.
EvidenceThe report’s model puts about 38.7% of Welsh employment in tasks exposed to AI. Exposure is not the same as job loss.
Higher productivity
Once AI is fully adopted, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central estimate is that it raises the level of UK productivity by 2.3% over a decade. Small companies that put AI to use could share in that gain.
EvidenceOffice for Budget Responsibility, central estimate.
Competing on equal terms
The AI plan for Wales aims to help small businesses adopt AI and compete globally. In 2024, Welsh companies that innovate used AI far less than those in England, 26.3% against 41.8%. A UK survey also found that a company’s size explains far more of its AI use than its region, so help designed for small companies matters.
EvidenceUK Innovation Survey 2025, and NatWest’s AI Adoption Report of September 2026.
Grants for the tools you use
Most AI tools are sold as subscriptions. Business grants funded by the Local Growth Fund in at least seven council areas exclude or restrict software, subscriptions and training. Grants that cover them would let small companies pay for the tools they use.
EvidenceCouncil grant rules published in 2026, in north and south Wales.
Expert help, not only events
Northern Ireland gives eligible businesses fully funded, hands-on help from AI specialists, and demand has exceeded places. In Wales, help that went beyond awareness, such as diagnosis and hands-on support, is where earlier programmes spent least.
EvidenceAI Collaboration Centre, Northern Ireland, and evaluations of earlier Welsh programmes.
Early signs from Welsh tourism
AI workshops for tourism businesses, funded by the Welsh Government, filled quickly. A Welsh Government minister has said that businesses taking part saw on average a 64% increase in website traffic.
EvidenceNeither published source says how many businesses this covers or how the increase was measured.
Rooted in Welsh communities
Microbusinesses provide 52.6% of employment in Ceredigion and 51.6% on Anglesey, against 24.3% in Cardiff. Help that reaches the smallest companies reaches much of the rural economy.
EvidenceBusinesses active in Wales in 2025, by council area.
In Welsh and in English
In 2021, 17.8% of people in Wales could speak Welsh, rising to 64.4% in Gwynedd and 55.8% on Anglesey. The Welsh Language Commissioner considers many modern language models able to handle Welsh well, and advises testing them in Welsh before use.
EvidenceCensus 2021, and the Commissioner’s statement on AI and the Welsh language.
The risks are real too
On the current path, the central estimate is that about 45,000 jobs could be displaced in Wales by 2035, before people find new work. Most of that happens whatever support is offered.
The risks fall hardest on rural places, on Welsh speakers and on the smallest companies. That is why we want help designed for them.
Where things stand
Wales has begun to act. It has an AI plan with a clear aim for business, an Office for AI, free AI events delivered across Wales by M-SParc, a Welsh science park, and a training subsidy. The new government has promised a more coordinated national approach.
The AI plan does not yet have a budget of its own, and no spending has yet been reported from the £2.1m package announced in January 2026 to help small businesses adopt AI.
Since April 2022, about 2p in every £1 of public money awarded for AI work in Wales has gone to helping businesses adopt it. Northern Ireland spends about four times as much per person on hands-on AI help for businesses as Wales has committed, on the most favourable reading for Wales. The comparison is indicative, because the schemes differ.
For scale, three years of spending at Northern Ireland’s rate, about £13.5m, is about 1.2% of the central £1.1bn gain. This is not a return on public spending, because extra output is not the same as tax revenue and the report’s model does not link spending to adoption.